Re: Hyperion's Sequoia (Tower Event)

by **faithnomorex** Mon Apr 01, 2013 2:05 pm

Something, something... gambler's fallacy... something, something...

by **Grendel** Mon Apr 01, 2013 2:40 pm

FrankF wrote:

This does nothing of the sort. The odds of getting 4 ges in a row if there are 4 possible outcomes and all are equally likely (assuming independent events) is 0.39%. Small, but not impossible. Given the number of active players (> 50K I think), you would expect a good number of them to get 4 ges in a row.

Now, if you had said "OK, this information just makes clear is most probably isn't a 25% chance", then I wouldn't have had to get on my pedantic math-nerd soapbox.

two can play this game xD

since i am at floor 300 and only got 1 orb and ranked 1500. we can be sure there are no 50K ppl near the possibilty of even getting four extra summons. and out of them one posted here he got three in a row and one posted he got four in a row.

Thats why i am on the safe side if I say it's impossible, but still even if the Odds of getting a GES were 0.00001% it wouldn't be impossible to get 100 GES in a row. gg

I hope that's good with your pedant attitude Wink

Oh and sorry to all for my horrible english ^^

by **Dagodz** Mon Apr 01, 2013 4:18 pm

I was to floor 1k and i was ranked 300ish and fell back quite a bit for taking easter off (508). But i still have lots of ep to burn so I am quickly making that up. Already up to floor 1500 and will be at 2k before dinner.

This is my first attempt to rank in anything. I never knew how much work it would actually be. Wow I am clicked out at this point....

by **ryesteve** Mon Apr 01, 2013 5:02 pm

FrankF wrote:This does nothing of the sort. The odds of getting 4 ges in a row if there are 4 possible outcomes and all are equally likely (assuming independent events) is 0.39%. Small, but not impossible. Given the number of active players (> 50K I think), you would expect a good number of them to get 4 ges in a row.

Now, if you had said "OK, this information just makes clear is most probably isn't a 25% chance", then I wouldn't have had to get on my pedantic math-nerd soapbox.

Stop, you're giving math nerds a bad name. 50k active players are irrelevant, since 50k didn't post here. Only two did. One got 3 gevos in a row, and the other got 4 in a row. Nothing in statistics is "impossible", but at some point, the probability is so low, just concede the point and move on.

by **Noc3** Mon Apr 01, 2013 6:40 pm

Well afterall I think I'll only make it to floor 150, I feel like Im not leveling as fast as I did last time I did this event, any of you floor grinders got a spare velvet dreams (sin AA) to give? :3 I promise I'll give her a good home and level her and take her out for fights Very Happy

by **applesauce** Mon Apr 01, 2013 7:09 pm

i've gotton 3 ges but not consecutively, the only other thing i got is velvet dreams, i literally have like 5 atm :/

by **FrankF** Mon Apr 01, 2013 11:28 pm

ryesteve wrote:
FrankF wrote:This does nothing of the sort. The odds of getting 4 ges in a row if there are 4 possible outcomes and all are equally likely (assuming independent events) is 0.39%. Small, but not impossible. Given the number of active players (> 50K I think), you would expect a good number of them to get 4 ges in a row.

Now, if you had said "OK, this information just makes clear is most probably isn't a 25% chance", then I wouldn't have had to get on my pedantic math-nerd soapbox.
Stop, you're giving math nerds a bad name. 50k active players are irrelevant, since 50k didn't post here. Only two did. One got 3 gevos in a row, and the other got 4 in a row. Nothing in statistics is "impossible", but at some point, the probability is so low, just concede the point and move on.

The number of active players is most definitely not irrelevant. Given a large enough population, you should *expect* some of them to get 4 in a row. And in the limit, you should expect a string of N in a row for any N (\in Z^+) you care to mention. But most importantly, you can't assume that the two posters represent your sample, given the selection bias in posting. How do you know we didn't have 50K lurkers who didn't get 3 or 4 gevos in a row?

by **Deathblob** Tue Apr 02, 2013 12:12 am

Because I've only done 130 floors, and I'm rank #6783.

by **ryesteve** Tue Apr 02, 2013 12:51 am

FrankF wrote:The number of active players is most definitely not irrelevant. Given a large enough population, you should *expect* some of them to get 4 in a row. And in the limit, you should expect a string of N in a row for any N (\in Z^+) you care to mention. But most importantly, you can't assume that the two posters represent your sample, given the selection bias in posting. How do you know we didn't have 50K lurkers who didn't get 3 or 4 gevos in a row?

I said stop. I have no patience for faux-intellectual posers.

No one is saying two people are "representative" of ANYTHING. It's the only data points we had, but it was enough. And if/when more people add their experiences, their data can be added, and we'll still conclude that the chances of getting an evo are greater than 25%.

And what selection bias? People posting here are more inclined to summon evos instead of AAs?? And the reason I know that there aren't 50k lurkers who would say otherwise is because the one thing the internet is good at is generating gratuitous contradiction, you being Exhibit A. But like I said, when more people weigh in, they'll be included.

by **Noc3** Tue Apr 02, 2013 1:39 am

applesauce wrote:i've gotton 3 ges but not consecutively, the only other thing i got is velvet dreams, i literally have like 5 atm :/

can I haz 1 velvet dreams pls? :3

by **bacsiha** Tue Apr 02, 2013 4:31 am

to know that the chance to summon GES is 25% or not we must have at least 1000 + summon

by **XJF** Tue Apr 02, 2013 4:56 am

I've had 7 sets so far after floor 200.
4 GES and 3 Covert AA

by **FrankF** Tue Apr 02, 2013 8:47 am

ryesteve wrote:
No one is saying two people are "representative" of ANYTHING. It's the only data points we had, but it was enough. And if/when more people add their experiences, their data can be added, and we'll still conclude that the chances of getting an evo are greater than 25%.

And what selection bias? People posting here are more inclined to summon evos instead of AAs?? And the reason I know that there aren't 50k lurkers who would say otherwise is because the one thing the internet is good at is generating gratuitous contradiction, you being Exhibit A. But like I said, when more people weigh in, they'll be included.

The selection bias is of people talking about their experiences. The people more likely to post are the ones who had the "unusual" seeming experiences, like getting 4 gevos in a row. Those who got evo-AA-evo-AA would be less likely to post. But you really can't responsibly conclude much from a sample size of two, even if it's all the data you have.

by **ryesteve** Tue Apr 02, 2013 9:27 am

FrankF wrote: But you really can't responsibly conclude much from a sample size of two, even if it's all the data you have.

Sure you can... all it took was a sample of size 1 of your postings for me to reliably conclude that your analytical skills are awful.

by **Grendel** Tue Apr 02, 2013 10:02 am

Guys keep calm don't fight please

by **Scratch102** Tue Apr 02, 2013 10:05 am

by **South.sin** Tue Apr 02, 2013 12:32 pm

is it worth spend my ep to get the AA from this event? what's the price?

by **robinsonsteve62** Tue Apr 02, 2013 12:44 pm

I hate when they makes the tower events 2 weeks...then it takes spook liking for the death summoner to show up(usually the last weekend)...I'm kinda just waiting for him now.....

by **faithnomorex** Tue Apr 02, 2013 12:48 pm

South.sin wrote:is it worth spend my ep to get the AA from this event? what's the price?

The market should be so flooded with the AAs, that you should be able to pick up a reg for 5 EP or less by the end of the event.

by **JessicaMD** Tue Apr 02, 2013 12:48 pm

Scratch102 wrote:

Hyperion's Sequoia (Tower Event) - Page 5 Stephen-Colbert-Raves-It-up

by **South.sin** Tue Apr 02, 2013 12:51 pm

that sucks..

by **Dagodz** Tue Apr 02, 2013 1:04 pm

Never got around to the 1500 - 2000 push yesterday so I wound up at 1501 and ranked #442 this morning.

Just an FYI for those of you wanting to know how much cushion you have.

by **ryesteve** Tue Apr 02, 2013 1:12 pm

Thanks for the info... that'd make the current cut around 1440

by **South.sin** Tue Apr 02, 2013 1:15 pm

to rank up in 500 how much ep it usually takes?

by **Dagodz** Tue Apr 02, 2013 1:25 pm

I have spent 0 ep. All mine has been myep... Smile

But i have spent around 115 myep to get here

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