Card values, always a guessing game. Any guideline for a new release?

So, I'm looking at Rancor only since that's my team but in a nutshell...how on earth do these prices get to where they are?

Here is an example:

Wingarm Dragon+m(20) - 13860 10080 15120 (A/D/H) DED 34bp
Scales of Lightning+m(20) - 11880 118800 17160 (A/D/H) DED 37bp

Both are winged. SoL comes out and everyone seems to rush to get this new card as soon as possible, and prices rocket up. Natural progression of a new winged wyrm card since there is no Wyrm Down skill, yet. I can see the appeal of the new card, one could grab it, max it, then convert Wingarm to DEA or something, but is the stat difference so big that it is a pure replacement for Wingarm? Thus, prices for Wingarm will continue to plummet while SoL will settle to where Wingarm was a month or so back?


Second query:

Starved Earth Dragon+ (Crit, who cares skill level) - 12240 12240 17680 (A/D/H) 39bp Not Winged

When this event ended I saw loads of these on the auction house, ranging from 4/500ep to 100ep for a reg. This feels like another Desolate Dragon, non-winged but high bp for...what? People going after the Wyrm combo?


So, TL;DR when a new card comes out from an event, it can have a high value for the 'new' factor of course, but what else drives up the price??

1 - New
2 - Replacement/Upgrade for existing 'known' team
3 - ???
4 - Profit

????

Don't forget to take rarity into account. I believe SoL only comes from event traps, so there will be fewer on the market. Also given that AA+ teams tend to be more defensive the extra 1800 def and 2000 HP may be more desireable for people who are pushing max stats.

the rule of thumb is...

functionally identical (winged ded covert wyrm) & marginally better stats = significantly more expensive

I don't know why it's like that, it simply IS.

if you divide stats by ep value, ascending up the ladder from A from to AA form to super duper AA form; you'll see it's all an exercise of rapidly diminishing returns.


same thing happens with As all the time.
all ipa sin demons except asura are practically skill stacks

or sdm became worthless overnight when everyone wanted cannon

mesh replacing vritra

etc...

Personally I believe that SoL is prices so high currently due to it's very minimal supply vs demand.

I personally want one to skill change to DEA. That way I can still have an 5x combo with DEA, DED, IPD (and possibly IPA if I skill change the new covert ranking monster). It's a much better option vs using the DEA on Terra.


Regarding Earth. I personally feel A-Team is slowly bringing out more buff wryms in hope people with forgo the 5x combo in favor of a 4x combo with high bp AA's.

Gah...

The best way to kill the value on an aa like the ranking aa from this event or vanity is to place a skill, even one as good as IPA, on it. The best thing to do is to get 2 wingarms and mod one with ipa for offensive and dea for defensive.

I mean you can dea SOL because that AA has a skill that you can get a spirit for. But As of now there is no guild down spirits and doesn't look like there will be for a while.

Saw a Finis offered with crit skill change. O_o

Made me feel not so bad about my DEA Primula.

Guidelines, Does it complete a top tier form, and is it rare?

But, I want to add that species down spirits were added to the game, and wyrm down is among them...

Might have a significant effect on wyrm values.