lottery

What do we think of the lottery. How many people do you think will a actually win their AA. I'm thinking you would need 100 tickets and still won't win one, much like the real lottery....I think most will only get low ranking prices

When I first started playing there was a lottery (I think for two million downloads), but that one was a little different. Much like other "random" features of DS, I'd imagine that the lottery is probably quite fixed, and they will control how many AA rewards are given out. In all, it will probably be a decent number. Enough to affect the prices of the AA in the short run at the very least.

Im thinking 3 people will win the AA, since they are only giving out 3 AA's.

Yeah, A Team was aghast when as many as 5 people at a time were winning AAs last time, so they needed to change things up to limit how many get given out.

I do think it's interesting with 11 lottery tickets for the 11 pack DS...

in theory, someone could win 3 of the Fire lords.

OK.... it's not likely, but theoretically possible

Do you really think this will be a random drawing, or is A Team giving out a specific number of winning numbers?

Remember how "random" the slot machine was??

They aren't giving out 3 AAs, they are picking 3 numbers. It is a 5 digit number, so in theory multiple people can have it. Trust me, it won't end up being a lot of AAs though. ATeam wants to encourage people to buy the x11 packs of dark summons, that's all this event is.

1 in 10000 per ticket, I believe. 33k numbers, divide by 3(since +1 and -1 and +0 are equivalent), so 1 in 11k numbers. Everyone's going to get about 10 tickets(without purchase), so 1/1000 will get an AA, which is pretty big. Fire Lord Suzaku prices are about to tank pretty heavily...

I don't understand your math. The tickets have 5 digits, so there are 100,000 possibilities. If everyone gets 10 tickets, then it's 1 in 10,000 who'll get a AA.

lottery numbers are from 00001-33333, everyone gets a min of 10 tickets

*using approximate numbers assuming no repeat tickets*

so chances for each person to win with exact numbers is 33333/10 = 3333

since you dont have to have exact numbers it can be -1, 0, +1 so that multiplies your chances by 3

1 in 1111 wins a AA

blah seems to be right

of course this does not take into account people who will do dark summons for more tickets

I missed where they said it only goes up to 33333.
But there are more than 33333 people playing, and if we're all getting 10+ tickets, there are going to be plenty of repeats. But since I never assumed this was going to be random anyway, it doesn't really matter.

You guys need to go back to school and take statistics. This is a permuation, its exponential. You're first number can be 0-9. 10 choices. Second, same thing. So on and so on. (Permutation not a combination because order does matter)

It's actually a set of permutations. So here goes what I remember from Econ 205(I took it twice because I got a d the first time, b- the second.

Perumation calculator: n!/(n-k)!

N is the set and k is number of objects chosen.

Let's do a simple one for you guys so you can understand:

How many ways can a group of 4 students out of 15 be lined up.

15=n, 4=k

15!/(15-4)!= 32760.

Unfortunately the result is convoluted. It's set 1X2X3X4X5. I am too lazy to do the math but you can get the picture.

Long story short, there is NO way it's 1 in 1000.

So you're too lazy to do math and you got a D in your ECO class, but you're gonna try to give us a lecture anyway?

Anyway, go back and take the course a third time, because you're still confusing the formulas for combinations and permutations. You don't divide by (n-k)! if order matters.

Relax bud. I'm just simply stating that the math you guys are using to figure out your odds is incorrect. It's a complex forumula.

And I'm pretty sure I have the equation right, if order doesn't matter it's N!/k!(n-k)!... I think. Or it could be the other way around. Regardless, D's get degrees.

Relax bud, I'm simply stating the formula you're using is wrong.

And yeah, I'm pretty sure you're pretty sure, that's why you got a D.

rng is not running the lottery, A-team is. Think about the slots.

each lottery ticket as a schrodinger box, you don't know what if anything is inside until it is opened.

For market control purposes, this CANNOT and IS NOT being run as a lottery, the repeating tickets is a clear giveaway of that.

What you get in a lottery ticket is not a 'chance' to win, I can't speak on precise figures, but there are going to be X 1st Prizes, Y 2nd prizes, Z 3rd prizes, etc... these figures have been determined by A-team prior to distribution, and you already have your prizes in your inventory, it's just time delay until you get to see them.

Why? because this would not work with a true rng system. duplicate entries and overly specified win conditions (eg repetitive number prize) out of a sample size this small would result in the high likelihoods particular prizes are won by nobody, and you can bet there would be backlash if NOBODY got an AA from this lottery (which is actually the most likely outcome considering repeat entry allowance which negates any victory condition pigeonholing) Oh, and here's an even scarier scenario that A-team will be avoiding by not using an rng. The last thing they want to do is give out too much free stuff which is a very real possibility with repeated entries. What would happen if 1000 people got a firelord from this? or 1000 people got the dark summons package, that would hamstring the market so that ep sales would surely suffer for the immediate future due to the crash in overall prices (and I'm just talking about an influx of dark summons which will mostly be garbage).

From a purely business standpoint, this CANNOT be done in true lottery fashion. It is something which is intended to have the appearance of a random system, but for the sake of their interest in continued profit MUST be deterministic and orchestrated. they CANNOT and WILL NOT do this randomly. Too many things can go wrong for them.



and even if this was a truly random system, Sterling you got the wrong formulas.

n!/(n-k)! is for permutations which do not allow repetition... which would invalidate any of the already announced repeating number prizes
N!/k!(n-k)! is a binomial coefficient, (n choose k) or combination without repetition, which for the same reasons above does not work

I mean they say those who can do, and those who can't teach, But you gotta at least sound like you know what you're talking about if you're going to drop in and tell people to go back to school and list some equations that don't have anything to do with the topic at hand.


this is on par to submitting a thermodynamics thesis to your doctoral committee simply stating;
"u guyz r dumb lol e=mc^2 I build time machin
#winning"

Excellent post.

did my IQ just go up?

also, i think its a bit of both worlds, as to a bit of actual random, and a bit of fixed. it will probably be like the slots (fk that was a lame facade for stamps lol) as in the fact its already fixed and determined how many ppl will get prizes. i do still believe that WHO gets them will be random.

In all fairness, I did say I got a D. Thanks for clearing that up Larry. I had not taken into consideration that A-team wouldn't allow a pure lottery.

Permutation formula IS n!/(n-r)!
Combination formula IS n!/((n-r)!r!)
But this is neither a permutation nor a combination problem, but a straight up multiplication deal, because the lottery does NOT say anywhere that all the digits HAVE to be different and does instead say that they CAN be the same. Therefore, each players odds of winning are 3 out of 10x10x10x10x10 or (if lowest number is 00001) 10x10x10x10x9. So 3 in 100,000 or 1 in 30,000 depending on which set (5 10s or 4 10s and a 9) we use. And I didn't get a D in math, As and Bs here.

I think you guys are being too paranoid/think ATeam cares anything about the economy. They ran a lottery awhile back where you get to choose your own number and have a daily prize of Tower AA for exact match and 25bp AA for being off by one digit on the last number. They handed out quite a few AA. Somewhere around 20 of Tower and more of the 25bp. It did nothing to reduce the price of the tower AA. The chance of winning is so low though someone in my guild got a Vlad that way.

This event is the same and I highly doubt it will affect the price of the lords at all and the lords are no where near as pricy as the Tower AA and far more common to start with so I don't ATeam will bother tweaking the rng. Even if they end up giving out thousands of lords, they wouldn't care in the least.

Kyan

Another thing to consider. You can sort lotto tickts by how they were received. This means each ticket can be distinguished based on how obtained (free daily, bought dark, bought x11, bought epic). Event says nothing about random so what's to stop them from allocating prizes based on method of obtaining?

Not sure how this would benefit them unless they advertised the fact that buying gave better results or something.

I'm surprised 82 players got 1st prize.

Any of you got 1st prize?
I won 4th prize

ah my number was 31870 and lottery was 31970. fuuuuuuuuuuuuuu

4th prize here as well. Better than nothing I guess.

I had 29 tickets and still only won a my energy potion....WTF