Collectible Loot % Appearance Chance Stats

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Collectible Loot % Appearance Chance Stats

Post by sweet jesus on Tue Nov 13, 2012 11:43 am

Ran some numbers, I wanted to share the somewhat surprising results. Web wisdom says the third slot is least likely to appear, but I would argue otherwise. I will expand this as I have time and ask that others contribute their own results by either replying or sending me a PM.

500 Energy Mission 3.1

Monster 1 Monster 2 Loot
20 44 114
4.0% 8.8% 22.8%

550 Energy Mission 3.4

Monster 1 Monster 2 Loot
29 64 137
5.27% 11.6% 24.9%

500 Energy Mission 3.5
Monster 1 Monster 2 Loot
20 68 126
4.0% 13.6% 25.2%

300 Energy Mission 4.2
Monster 1 Monster 2 Loot
8 35 52
2.67% 11.67% 17.3%

700 Energy Mission 4.3
Monster 1 Monster 2 Loot
21 73 134
3.0% 10.4 19.1%

700 Energy Mission 4.5

Monster 1 Monster 2 Loot
22 63 137
3.14% 9.0% 19.6%

If you assume a 25% return rate for collectible loot and assume the same return across all of the Lotus set, you can figure 4 energy points for each piece of loot or 24 energy points for each Dark Lord Crystal. Looking at this, 10 Dark Lord Crystals for 1 potion seems a little pricey, and as kyan pointed out, they frequently sell for 15:1.


Last edited by sweet jesus on Wed Nov 21, 2012 1:03 pm; edited 10 times in total
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Re: Collectible Loot % Appearance Chance Stats

Post by faithnomorex on Tue Nov 13, 2012 1:17 pm

I'd say your sample size isn't large enough. I've personally had runs getting 15/20 loot drops and also had 1/30+ loot drops. It varies quite a bit.

A nice sample size in my opinion would be 5000+ energy, though that is probably more effort than anyone would want to bother with. Also, you'd probably want to test on multiple missions. We all kind of assume that each mission has the same drop chance, but that may not necessarily be the case.

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Re: Collectible Loot % Appearance Chance Stats

Post by sweet jesus on Tue Nov 13, 2012 1:26 pm

faithnomorex wrote:I'd say your sample size isn't large enough.

Agreed, but it's a starting point. The numbers will smooth out and approach the mean as the sample size gets larger. I simply couldn't find any other numbers or discussion on this subject.

faithnomorex wrote: Also, you'd probably want to test on multiple missions.

Yes, and I plan to. See the underlined sentence in my first post Very Happy

faithnomorex wrote: We all kind of assume that each mission has the same drop chance, but that may not necessarily be the case.

Each mission may have the same drop chance, and that will be easy to find out once I run some more crystal tests, or anyone can run their own and I will add them to the original post.
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Re: Collectible Loot % Appearance Chance Stats

Post by mydroid4 on Tue Nov 13, 2012 6:40 pm

Small sample size of a little over 500 energy per mission (will post an update later)

(Mission, Monster 1%, Monster 2%, Loot%)
1.1, 5.36%, 16.08%, 28.90%
1.2, 6.42%, 15.41%, 29.36%
1.4, 7.16%, 16.15%, 28.81%
2.1, 4.66%, 11.42%, 25.78%
2.3, 3.86%, 11.40%, 25.74%


I havent got to 2.5 yet (too close to level up to waste an ep). Like i mentioned before small sample size right now, and i will update it as I progress

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Re: Collectible Loot % Appearance Chance Stats

Post by kyan on Tue Nov 13, 2012 7:44 pm

sweet jesus wrote:Ran some numbers, I wanted to share the somewhat surprising results. All of what I have read indicates that the collectible loot in the third slot is least likely to appear, but I would argue otherwise based on this small sample. I will expand this as I have time.

Spent 300 Energy on Mission 3.5

Monster 1 Monster 2 Loot
14 43 73
4.67% 14.33% 24.33%

If you round up to 25% return rate for collectible loot and assume the same return across all of the Lotus set, you can figure 4EP for each piece of loot or 24EP for each Dark Lord Crystal. Looking at this, 10 Dark Lord Crystals for 1EP seems a little pricey.

The usual rate is more like 15 per dark lord but yes as I mention in some post earlier, farming crystal is in fact a great return for your investment. Its just freakin boring and time consuming. You can get ~15 sets on about 300 energy points.

BTW you use ep to mean both energy points and energy potion making your post somewhat confusing.

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Re: Collectible Loot % Appearance Chance Stats

Post by sweet jesus on Tue Nov 13, 2012 11:36 pm

kyan wrote:
The usual rate is more like 15 per dark lord but yes as I mention in some post earlier, farming crystal is in fact a great return for your investment. Its just freakin boring and time consuming. You can get ~15 sets on about 300 energy points.

BTW you use ep to mean both energy points and energy potion making your post somewhat confusing.

Yeah, I've seen anywhere from 10:1 to 20:1, I think 10 crystals per energy potion is what people most people ask for, not necessarily receive.

I'll clarify first post, thanks for the input.

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Re: Collectible Loot % Appearance Chance Stats

Post by sweet jesus on Thu Nov 15, 2012 1:12 am

mydroid4 wrote:Small sample size of a little over 500 energy per mission (will post an update later)

(Mission, Monster 1%, Monster 2%, Loot%)
1.1, 5.36%, 16.08%, 28.90%
1.2, 6.42%, 15.41%, 29.36%
1.4, 7.16%, 16.15%, 28.81%
2.1, 4.66%, 11.42%, 25.78%
2.3, 3.86%, 11.40%, 25.74%

Great data, thanks! If you have specific numbers like 515 energy and 26 monsters, PM me. That way if more people add their own results I can add it all together.

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Re: Collectible Loot % Appearance Chance Stats

Post by sweet jesus on Sat Nov 17, 2012 8:05 pm

Updated. mydroid4 send me your data if you still have it and I will add it.

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Re: Collectible Loot % Appearance Chance Stats

Post by xalthos on Sat Nov 17, 2012 9:32 pm

Here's some juicy data from my recent runs (For the Lotus Set)

Good idea to combine everyone's numbers all together. Assuming everyone can count correctly, it's a good way to get a large sample size and figure out these percentages.


Mission
Energy Monster 1 Monster 2 Loot



4.5
300 10 30 48



4.3
300 5 26 59



4.2
300 8 35 52



3.5
200 6 25 53


3.4
250 12 32 59



3.1
200 7 21 44


I will update this if I do any more runs.

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Re: Collectible Loot % Appearance Chance Stats

Post by xalthos on Sat Nov 17, 2012 9:34 pm

And it looks like you're a bit luckier than me on some of these missions ._.

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Re: Collectible Loot % Appearance Chance Stats

Post by sweet jesus on Wed Nov 21, 2012 1:04 pm

xalthos wrote:Here's some juicy data from my recent runs (For the Lotus Set)

Good idea to combine everyone's numbers all together. Assuming everyone can count correctly, it's a good way to get a large sample size and figure out these percentages.


Mission
Energy Monster 1 Monster 2 Loot



4.5
300 10 30 48



4.3
300 5 26 59



4.2
300 8 35 52



3.5
200 6 25 53


3.4
250 12 32 59



3.1
200 7 21 44


I will update this if I do any more runs.

Thanks for the data, added. Sorry it took so long, busy!

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Re: Collectible Loot % Appearance Chance Stats

Post by mydroid4 on Mon Nov 26, 2012 6:59 pm

Sorry, spent time and ep in an event I had no business in. First 5000s sample report for mission 1.1 (mob1, mob2, loot, mob1%, mob2%, loot%)

251, 754, 1503, 5.02%, 15.08%, 30.06%

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Re: Collectible Loot % Appearance Chance Stats

Post by Torrenal on Sun Mar 17, 2013 3:22 pm

http://vassarstats.net/prop1.html - link to a binomial interval calculator. Or in English: you tell it you got goods 5 times out of 500 tries, and it says the true drop rate is between 0.4 and 2.4%

Feel free to apply it to here, should let you know where more research is needed.
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