Is this trade offer worse then it looks?

So I put up an auction hoping for a balrog+ and received a different surprising offer.

My auction:
Hilda+m sk 1
Dragonoid+m sk 5
5 EP

The offer:
Death blade epetamu AA lvl 100 dea 8
Beast Soul Knight+m sk 1
Mysterious Sentinel
Grieving Mandrake
Dream Breaker Priest

This seems like a really great deal to me? Or is there something i'm missing here because right now i feel like pressing this accept button ASAP haha. Any insight on this would be appreciated as i don't deal with AA's at all, thanks.

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Far as I can tell u though, death blade isnt that great of an AA, it can go for as cheap as 30 ep, other players will tell u more exactly. Beast soul knight is about the same value as hilda or slightly better. The other A's are extras, maybe Sentinel worth something more then 1-2 ep like the rest.

lol, sentinel when +ed and maxed, even though it has no skill, is worth a fair bit, due to his insane attack, lol. over 9000 atk on a rancor beast.

Thanks for the replies and links. So after looking through it all i've gathered that:
Deathblade is around 40 EP (not sure if lvl 100 and the sk8 has any value difference as it will lose it when evolved)
Beast Soul Knight+m is around 16
Sentinel is around 5-ish for a reg and the rest not much to put it bluntly.

It also seems that dark summoner is in a recession of sorts at the moment because of the event, perhaps thats the reason for this offer.
I guess i'll accept it and hopefully trade the Deathblade for a balrog+ like originally planned. Thanks again for the insight guys.

Balrog, and asura (to name at least two) are back on the summoning tables, even though they were highly valuable and previously unsummonable monsters from past events.

They are tweaking the summoning tables, so what folks are doing is liquidating their instances of those monsters before the general market gets wind of that. I would highly advise against trading the deathblad for a balrog, because the prices WILL be crashing shortly as a large sum of new ones enter the market.

I don't have an exhaustive list of which monsters are summonable now, but I have several confirmatory reports of asuras and balrogs being summoned, so it is entirely reasonable to assume that others have been returned. I would advise caution in any transactions where you will be RECEIVING these type of 'high value unsummonables' such as spite, glam, etc... until the market stabilizes. If you have em, sell em while they're worth something.

larry378 wrote:Balrog, and asura (to name at least two) are back on the summoning tables, even though they were highly valuable and previously unsummonable monsters from past events.

They are tweaking the summoning tables, so what folks are doing is liquidating their instances of those monsters before the general market gets wind of that. I would highly advise against trading the deathblad for a balrog, because the prices WILL be crashing shortly as a large sum of new ones enter the market.

I don't have an exhaustive list of which monsters are summonable now, but I have several confirmatory reports of asuras and balrogs being summoned, so it is entirely reasonable to assume that others have been returned. I would advise caution in any transactions where you will be RECEIVING these type of 'high value unsummonables' such as spite, glam, etc... until the market stabilizes. If you have em, sell em while they're worth something.

I got a balrog from the free ice crystal the first day of event. Teehee

DO IT! I HAD A DEATHBLADE THAT WAS LEVEL 3 SKILL 3 I SOLD FOR A BALROG+M(4)! YOU WILL EASILY MILK A BALROG OUT OF THE DEATHBLADE MAX ALONE!!!

Dark Impact wrote:DO IT! I HAD A DEATHBLADE THAT WAS LEVEL 3 SKILL 3 I SOLD FOR A BALROG+M(4)! YOU WILL EASILY MILK A BALROG OUT OF THE DEATHBLADE MAX ALONE!!!

not sure if you read the other posts... balrog is summonable again, and you can get him from the flames too, so balrog is not going to be nearly as valuable as it used to be.

deathblade for balrog which was once a 'mediocre to bad' trade

is gonna be an outright 'bad' trade soon.

Glad I saw this. Brought two Balrog regs for 23EP total over the weekend thinking I was on to a killing! Thought it was a little fishy as quite a few were coming onto the market. Just done a quick offload having evolved them for 28EP. Might have gotten more but as others above have said, I needed to beat the market!

Well with the whole deathblade deal, I was truly sick of trying to sell it (let's be honest, pretty much no one wants one) so I sold it for a balrog+ because I knew at least that would be easy to sell. What I'm saying is that if all you're looking for is a balrog+, a deathblade max will get you that and more, because although your only market for selling a deathblade is people with random covert AA teams, they will see trading a balrog or 30+ ep as well worth it.

Balrog and Asura has always been summonable. They are just rare and highly sought after. I'm not sure who told you they weren't but they are wrong. They weren't just added back, they have always been there. Progression monsters which balrog and asura are, have always been summonable until this event with the first prog being ice crystal only. I went through the list in bestiary and indicated what monsters are event limited but I guess I didn't state on there that progs for events are from dark summons and have always been available. I just assume people knew.

Kyan
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Very interesting. I came to the understanding that those were unsummonable from reading it here and in-game multiple times... i suppose in hindsight that may have been marketing.

This the first ive heard otherwise, but i was under the impression that they were unsummonable due to stable prices up until the last week or so when they seemed to have started crashing... and hearing from folks that they were summoning said commodities. I suppose my assumption was purelycircumstantial. However there is an undeniable disturbance occurring with these 10-20 mons like dcc too. I suppose an increase in distribution rates is the cause. I simply assumed it was a null to low change, while what you say indicates that it is likely attributable to a change from rare to uncommon.

The disturbance in their prices is more likely due to the new monsters being released than a change in summoning chance. What with dragon of Jupiter, Blue steel devil, mysterious Sentinel, and scorch behemoth, sin demons have taken a hit to their popularity, and so have their prices gone down.

larry378 wrote:Very interesting. I came to the understanding that those were unsummonable from reading it here and in-game multiple times... i suppose in hindsight that may have been marketing.

This the first ive heard otherwise, but i was under the impression that they were unsummonable due to stable prices up until the last week or so when they seemed to have started crashing... and hearing from folks that they were summoning said commodities. I suppose my assumption was purelycircumstantial. However there is an undeniable disturbance occurring with these 10-20 mons like dcc too. I suppose an increase in distribution rates is the cause. I simply assumed it was a null to low change, while what you say indicates that it is likely attributable to a change from rare to uncommon.

yea balrog has always been summonable, i have done it maybe 3 times over the last 3 monthes or so, though i have never summoned a asura

Yeah I heard Balrog was always summonable. I think another part of the reason for the price drop is that, as stated earlier, the market is in recession. People are getting desperate for EPs, and people are very reluctant to pay with EP. It kinda sucks when I look in the auction house and 4/5 auctions say "ep only". I understand that EP is essential to really be able to do anything, mostly for obtaining the event AAs, but even then, the majority of people are just looking to sell them to get EVEN MORE EP. This is supposed to be a trading card game, but with every passing day it seems to more closely resemble a stock market.

Oh, and on a side note, I saw your auction posted when I was browsing the AA.

haha well now I feel like chicken little thinking the sky was falling.

I think it may be a combination of multiple factors...

aside from demon and other species down, which I think primarily are affecting the AA metagame more than anything else; calling for mixed rather than species forms; the influx of terrific new psycho demons should be upping demand for dcc, while contradictorily, dccs are worth about half of what they were in the past. Similarly with impulse demons, there hasn't really been an upset with the sin major formations, and sin is still the largest playerbase and demons the most popular formation; which I think would have acted as a greater buffer against such a drop.

There certainly is a recession in progress from what I've seen with AA prices, however said price reduction with intention to liquidate seems to have been hitting As harder than AAs (in scalar terms, naturally the absolute reduction in AA prices is greater than the value of the As in question) which led me to assume that it had something to do with availability, as the AA market is more closely linked to event ep usage (the vast majority of A users don't really play events competitively, it's the AA users who are the big ep spenders). Therefore I was under the impression that the low-level market would be relatively insulated from the effects of an event-related ep short. And there would still be a large pool of ideal buyers for 'mid to high value' As at stable prices because they aren't spending their ep on the event. I do acknowledge a general reduction in liquid equivalency across the board though.

Lastly, I labored under this assumption for several months that some of these monsters were unsummonable. And this misconception was never contradicted by anything I encountered. This is obviously largely my fault due to confirmation bias; I personally have never summoned ANYTHING more valuable than a paimon (when they were stable at 8ep), and in hindsight I am now fairly certain that all that "unsummonable" nonsense was purely marketing from sellers (on this very forum, and in AH), but I didn't see anything to indicate the falsehood of it (e.g. conflicting reports). Then this last week, I've been seeing the prices fall, and been hearing multiple stories about people ally-summoning asuras and balrogs, etc... So I drew my flawed conclusion


I suppose fortunately for me, only my assessment of the cause of the situation was wholly incorrect, which ironically led me to the correct financial response. As soon as I got wind of the drop, I liquidated my relevant monsters for very minor, but concrete profits, and am well in the black on those particular transactions, although if I had held out for a few more days, I would have already lost ep on those monsters.


Apologies are certainly in order on my part for jumping to conclusions about the root of the price crash. I obviously had no clue what I was talking about earlier in this thread

my bad guys. thanks for sorting that out!

pretty embarrassing really... I speculate securities (or day-trade if you wish to call it that) semi professionally since I quit my last job and I should have thought this through a little more thoroughly. Honestly the DS economy is a more difficult nut to crack than the actual market, since there are no fiscal reports or market share that you can easily find on a website or something... which I suppose is why I love this game so much lol.

I haven't heard of asura and balrog from ally summon. If that is true than that is new. The highest bp A I ever got from ally was Abyss at 16. I haven't heard of anyone getting any A higher than 19.

I haven't came across anything in the forum about balrog and asura summoning until now. I would have said something. In game, it happens all the time about things being incorrectly dub as unsummonable or even worse as a ranking reward. I'm not sure if that is ignorance on the seller or just to hype it up probably a little of both.

As for the market crashing, it happens periodically. Eerily like a real stock market. There has been 3 ep intensive events in a row so the market is bound to crashed. As for your analysis on A being insular from this fluctuation, it just doesn't work that way. Trickle down actually tend to make A market suffer more than the AA. What happens is that, the players going for ranking gets low on ep and so they liquidate which drives the entire market down. Even those that are not going for ranking see good deals or those really rare AA+ coming on the market and also liquidate to get them. A are not insulated from this as those player would start selling their As cheap driving everyone else to sell for cheap. In addition, when you see a Vlad selling for 40, asking for a Balrog+ for the same price is much much harder and so the entire market gets depressed. Its also a psychological thing, when its a buyers market, you can drive a hard bargain and hoard those ep, only spending them on really really good deals. The only thing that is insulated from this is skills. That hasn't drop and it didn't drop during other DS "recessions" I have seen. Only time skills drop is when the market gets flooded like during the moebius event.

Kyan

kyan wrote:As for the market crashing, it happens periodically. Eerily like a real stock market. There has been 3 ep intensive events in a row so the market is bound to crashed. As for your analysis on A being insular from this fluctuation, it just doesn't work that way. Trickle down actually tend to make A market suffer more than the AA.
Kyan

That sound about right! My mistake was absolutely over-analyzing the situation and trying to account for some "hidden" forces and relationships which I fabricated to interpret the situation; particularly the insulation and separation of markets.

Ironically, it was much much simpler than what I overcomplicated it to be. All along, it was nearly a carbon copy of the system I know and love, and work with.

I'll try to remember that DS is rooted in the real world, and that real world rules apply before I put on my tin-foil hat again. Hooray for magical thinking


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Never expected the discussion to go into this much detail, made for an interesting read. Well, just so everyone knows how the story ended i traded the deathblade for a balrog+m sk 2/ abyss+m sk 3/pit+ sk4/astaroth+m sk 6. Might have been able to get more if i was more patient, but considering what i started off with and what i wanted to get in the first place, i consider it a deal well done.