Will the DS economy recover?

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Will the DS economy recover?

Post by God_of_War on Thu Dec 06, 2012 5:39 pm

Like a lot on here I try to make my way without spending any real life (m)oney but by buying low and selling high. But now we are deep into our 5th straight EP event and nobody is buying at all. Every auction I make I state for EP trade only, start at a low price and get nothing but rubbish card offers. I cannot remember the last thing I sold for EP on the leaders board. Everyone sells. As a result I now have 500 EP invested in "sure things" that I cannot shift. Cards that are conservatively worth 40EP I cannot get a single bid of 30EP on. I do take trade ups but ultimately it is EP you need for the events and certain purchases.

Do we think the DS economy can recover and what will it take for that to happen?

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Re: Will the DS economy recover?

Post by faithnomorex on Thu Dec 06, 2012 9:42 pm

If Vagrant Lands ever gets released... just kidding.

What follows is speculative and based on my personal opinions and observations.

I think the prices are all a little inflated. People are having to spend more and more EP to rank now than compared to some of the older events. Here's a small list of things that have changed over the past few months.
  • 500 total top rankings rewards, as opposed to 500 per guild -> more competitive
  • More players reaching higher levels -> mid level players need to spend more to compete
  • Demand for progs is higher, supply is lower -> more expensive progs
  • 'Better' monsters continue to be released -> nobody wants to hold monsters for fear of them losing value (more selling than buying)

With fewer ranking reward AAs available, the starting ask price is higher than the initial prices of event AAs from old events. Conceptually, this is fine. But add in the fact that EP is being drained at a faster rate than in the past, I'm sure you can see where this leads to problems. As the value of EP rises, the costs of monsters should than decrease. But with an increased demand and limited supply, people still manage to ask high prices on these monsters (I'm not certain how often they sell for pure EP, if ever).

Should people be able to ask 400 EP+ for a monster available from dark summons? No, probably not. The current ratio between EP into and out of the game cannot continue to support increasing EP prices for the newer, stronger monsters that everyone wants. With the exception of rare and limited monsters, there should be what would be considered a reasonable AA EP price cap. Whatever that cap may be, I believe we are past that point.

So to attempt to answer your original question... I would say it depends on your definition of recover. Will the value of EP return to its previous position and monsters all retain the value they had one week, one month, or three months ago? Probably not. I would say that if the EP values of monsters update to better reflect the higher value of EP, the market will in fact stabilize. So those "cards that are conservatively worth 40EP" are obviously worth less with the current value of EP if you cannot get a bid of 30 EP.

Proposed solution: fix the market (demand EP).
I won't say that the market is entirely broken. Supply and demand certainly works (see Dru pricing vs. time). Competition, on the other hand, doesn't seem to have as strong of an affect as I think it should. To put it bluntly, people need to accept the fact that their assets are devalued, and list them at lower prices. Just because somebody else is asking for an amount of EP doesn't mean that they are getting offers. If people truly want EP offers, they will have to continue to lower their expectations and accept lower EP offers. You can get EP in this economy if you competitively price your goods.

More and more people are starting to recognize the fact that it is difficult to get actual EP, as evidenced by the demands for pure EP offers only. Good for them. If more and more people refuse what would be considered "overbids of more valuable AAs", etc., then the price for these monsters may start to drop down to what they should actually be worth.

/end rant... sorry to anyone who actually read that. Feel free to debate; all input is appreciated.

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Re: Will the DS economy recover?

Post by applesauce on Thu Dec 06, 2012 10:05 pm

interesting, i have been able to sell several cards in the last 2 weeks...maybe i got lucky, lol i even sold a uranus+ for 20 ep, and made various profits buying and selling balrog, endless etc.

but yea i do notice that sellers are having(somewhat) less sales(and thus some will sell much cheaper for pure ep), i bought a daji for 110 just the other day.

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Re: Will the DS economy recover?

Post by FinestArts on Thu Dec 06, 2012 10:51 pm

Yeah, its really tough to sell in the current market if you try to use the "old prices" from a week ago or so. It's as faith says, the monsters are just not worth the value that people are pricing them at if nobody is buying. I think the economy will stabilise when people realise there isn't as much EP around as before and spend less EP on the events making it so you don't have to spend as much EP to get into the top 500, thus making the reward AA's cheaper.

I actually managed to clear out my whole inventory of monsters almost in the past few days. If no one blinks an eye, pretty much just keep slowly decreasing the price you set over time until you start to get some interest shown, then you know your price is actually being considered. I try to keep a fast moving inventory and not keep monsters too long because of the fast moving market these days.

If you still have EP now, it's still definitely possible to buy low and sell high with the current value of monsters, its the same as before with just lower prices all around, just gotta readjust to the current market.

I don't think the prices will recover to where they were before either, it doesn't make sense for prices to go up again unless A-team hands out a lot of free tradable EP to everyone, otherwise they wouldn't have gone down in the first place. So, you might just have to bite the bullet and sell your monsters off. You, probably won't get your 500 ep back, but you will probably get at least 350 ep. Which is still the same "worth" as the 500 ep a week ago since everything else has dropped as well. Example, I saw a vectaor+m sk20 being sold for 280ep and actually got haggled to 270ep. A week ago this, would be sold for 400ep quite commonly. A lot of people are also giving "discounts" for people who pay "pure ep". So you can still buy as much as you could before with 500 ep with 350 ep.

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Re: Will the DS economy recover?

Post by Xoct on Thu Dec 06, 2012 11:05 pm

No worries, Obama will take care of that.

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Re: Will the DS economy recover?

Post by zzz1998 on Fri Dec 07, 2012 12:45 am

Xoct wrote:No worries, Obama will take care of that.
I can not stop laughing on that line. I must be old.

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Re: Will the DS economy recover?

Post by silentsong on Fri Dec 07, 2012 8:30 am

zzz1998 wrote:
Xoct wrote:No worries, Obama will take care of that.
I can not stop laughing on that line. I must be old.


Lol, I'm 22 and thought that was hilarious. It's a dog eat dog world in the trade market of DS. The people who are successful adapt fast and strike hard. The ones who aren't complain and reminisce on "how things used to be."

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Re: Will the DS economy recover?

Post by God_of_War on Fri Dec 07, 2012 11:34 am

Not complaining yet. Smile

Still have some EP 'float' to play around with and will take on board everything said above. Big thanks to faithnomorex and FinestArts for such detailed replies. Happy to adjust my position on EP asks and will far more willing now, especially with high value cards to go for trade-ups rather than EP.

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Re: Will the DS economy recover?

Post by General Osf on Fri Dec 07, 2012 5:49 pm

Yes, the EP events have been draining funds and lowering prices... We need a government recovery plan.

Faithmorex raised some interesting points: New powerful monsters in each event. Getting a 30BP+ monster doesn't seems so especial anymore, is good that they are giving some nice alternatives to formations, but were getting to the point were we will have 40-45BP in no time.

Example: Becephalus+ (max skill) was only choice for beast team with IPA, now there is Cetus+... Poor Becephalus+ price is dropping as we speak and even more after event.

Some players like variety, immediate improvement and i can see arguments for both sides, but I would prefer some Agility monster for some species (Mystics, undead and more) or new B monsta with some of the new skills.

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Re: Will the DS economy recover?

Post by ryesteve on Fri Dec 07, 2012 8:04 pm

Has anyone pointed out that the recent bannings took a huge amount of EP out of the DS economy? That, more than anything else, is the reason why prices have come down so quickly recently.

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Re: Will the DS economy recover?

Post by faithnomorex on Fri Dec 07, 2012 9:09 pm

ryesteve wrote:Has anyone pointed out that the recent bannings took a huge amount of EP out of the DS economy? That, more than anything else, is the reason why prices have come down so quickly recently.

That's an interesting point that I had not considered. I wouldn't be surprised if the exploiters were responsible for generating a sizable portion of the free EP in the economy.

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Re: Will the DS economy recover?

Post by silentsong on Fri Dec 07, 2012 11:39 pm

God_of_War wrote:Not complaining yet. Smile

Still have some EP 'float' to play around with and will take on board everything said above. Big thanks to faithnomorex and FinestArts for such detailed replies. Happy to adjust my position on EP asks and will far more willing now, especially with high value cards to go for trade-ups rather than EP.

I never ask "EP only" in the auction house. My ultimate goal most of the time is EP, but patience has actually made me much larger profits than selling for pure EP. I'm perfectly okay with trading up, even if only slightly, to more valuable monsters as many times as it takes until inevitably the pure EP bid comes.

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Re: Will the DS economy recover?

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