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Tower/Snake King Event - Hallow's Eve

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TheFury
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Post by Armitaage Thu Oct 17, 2013 8:17 am

Looks like all towers will now feature Snake King like lotteries, for better or worse. On the upside, more agi monsters(although they'll be very rare) and ommfg, preemptive strike AAs. Good thing that we have AAAs and Exs to ensure that preemptive strike stays a shitty skill.
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Post by Dranagh Thu Oct 17, 2013 8:35 am

Yay. The previous one was such a smash success after all...

If this means the Death Summoners/McFlies will be gone for good btw, I'm most likely not going to bother with this one either...

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Post by Armitaage Thu Oct 17, 2013 9:11 am

No information on McWuss at this time, all we can do is wait and see. I just want 30+ pages of monsters in my gift box and I'll be ecstatic with the event. Better yet, 300+ pages, now that I think about it, lol.
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Post by ryesteve Thu Oct 17, 2013 9:26 am

Since what we know so far is pretty much a carbon copy of the event that ended, what, 10 days ago? I think we can be pessimistically confident that we won't see McFly this time either.
I'm really starting to feel like ATeam is just trolling us now...

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Post by Xcalibre Thu Oct 17, 2013 9:51 am

I noticed a couple of other changes:
1 the summoner of fortitude gives jewels now and not dark summons
2 there was no mention of Hunter points and prizes.
3 you need 10 candies for 1 reward.

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Post by MoRandi Thu Oct 17, 2013 10:30 am

Xcalibre wrote:I noticed a couple of other changes:
 1 the summoner of fortitude gives jewels now and not dark summons
 2  there was no mention of Hunter points and prizes.
 3 you need 10 candies for 1 reward.

Yes, noticed that too, tower events become shiter and shiter with every one that comes...hope after 100 F we wont have those forced battles aswell

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Post by Ologolos Thu Oct 17, 2013 10:39 am

Armitaage wrote: On the upside, more agi monsters(although they'll be very rare) and ommfg, preemptive strike AAs.
I like this... I want the agi monster. And I'm glad to see my 3 PS super stacks might be worth something now, lol.

*CANT WAIT* to see 7 billion freakin' golems in TM trying to be sold for 1 ep per... :-/
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Post by echoside Thu Oct 17, 2013 11:16 am

And again not a single SoS

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Post by MoRandi Thu Oct 17, 2013 1:43 pm

SOS will become legend from what i see, now u can't evolve Ex's skills even if u have EPs to spend, or the last ones will be sold for freakin high prices, i wonder if soo they reach 100 EP per piece...

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Post by zzz1998 Thu Oct 17, 2013 7:50 pm

MoRandi wrote:SOS will become legend from what i see, now u can't evolve Ex's skills even if u have EPs to spend, or the last ones will be sold for freakin high prices, i wonder if soo they reach 100 EP per piece...
Just like GES, and skill spirits, Ateam will flood the market with SOS when you least expect it.  Most likely right after you pay 100ep per SOS.

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Post by MoRandi Thu Oct 17, 2013 8:17 pm

And when i think ~2 months ago i have over 30 SOS/+ and sold for nothing...

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Post by ryesteve Fri Oct 18, 2013 8:51 am

If you want to feel better about that, ask people what they sold their celestial lightning spirits for, way back during that event where everyone got them as progress prizes.

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Post by Armitaage Fri Oct 18, 2013 9:02 am

Lol, yeah, the 15 bp battle tournament literally flooded the market with thunder spirits and everyone and their dog, cat, parrot, and their pet gerbil put them on balrogs of all things, lol. The most retarded use of thunder spirits ever, imo. Even before A/+ monsters became sac fodder only, back when A+ forms were still worth having, I was very derisive of the 'tards that wasted their thunder spirits on balrogs, lol.
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Post by ryesteve Fri Oct 18, 2013 9:06 am

Would it be too much to ask for ATeam to randomize something as straight-forward as a dice roll? Is anyone here averaging 7? I've collected data from 4 players so far, and all of them are around 6.5

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Post by MoRandi Fri Oct 18, 2013 9:06 am

I don't know when that time was, i play the game from 3rd january and even then a thunder spirit was 1000+ so i have no knowledge of what you guys talk about Smile
P.S.: Armitaage you meant flooded the auctions Smile

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Post by Armitaage Fri Oct 18, 2013 9:25 am

No, I mean the market. Not the trade market ingame feature, but rather the virtual market consisting of traders. Back then serious traders that made up the market avoided the auctions like the bubonic plague.

Steve, I'm averaging about a 7-9 myself, which is statistically normal. Statistically speaking, if you're rolling between 5 and 9 most of the time, you're not getting skewed results. Two thirds of the time, the roll will be between those two values, and 7 is the most common result. Source: http://boardgames.about.com/od/dicegames/a/probabilities.htm
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Post by ryesteve Fri Oct 18, 2013 10:05 am

Yeah, i know that. I also know that the chances that 4 out of 4 players would be under the expected mean is no better than 1 in 16, hence my suspicions

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Post by Armitaage Fri Oct 18, 2013 10:10 am

They're not that far below the expected mean. Remember, the mean observed by a player can vary slightly, largely dependent on the sample size. We can't make a generalization of the randomness of the roll, unless our sample size is about 1000 rolls minimum. Know anyone beyond floor 5k already?
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Post by ryesteve Fri Oct 18, 2013 11:09 am

So you're disputing that the chances that 4 out of 4 are below the mean is 1/16 or less? Please demonstrate.
And no, 1000 rolls aren't necessary to create a confidence interval.

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Post by TheFury Fri Oct 18, 2013 1:59 pm

ryesteve wrote:So you're disputing that the chances that 4 out of 4 are below the mean is 1/16 or less?  Please demonstrate.
And no, 1000 rolls aren't necessary to create a confidence interval.
You can definitely get a solid average estimate in most things with much less than 1000 rolls, but since the average value of rolling two dice is '7', getting close to that on average supports that it is correctly randomized. Indeed, your poll has a 1/16 chance of happening - but you would be saying the same thing if all four people were higher than 7, so really it is 1/8... not really very unlikely at all. Four people is far from enough to say something is skewed.

Plus, I'm above the '7' average here by a little (just below 8 ), so there ya go.

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Post by ryesteve Fri Oct 18, 2013 2:05 pm

True, about the two-tailed interpretation of the hypothesis, except in this case, no one would ever theorize ahead of time that ATeam would skew things in our favor. Anyone who's played this game for more than a couple events, regardless of their innate level of cynicism, would not be asking the question "Are the dice rolls random", but rather "Is ATeam once again screwing us with their pretend-random b.s."

In any event, I was not presenting this as definitive of proof of anything... I think my exact words were that it gave me suspicions.

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Post by TheFury Fri Oct 18, 2013 2:57 pm

ryesteve wrote:True, about the two-tailed interpretation of the hypothesis, except in this case, no one would ever theorize ahead of time that ATeam would skew things in our favor.  Anyone who's played this game for more than a couple events, regardless of their innate level of cynicism, would not be asking the question "Are the dice rolls random", but rather "Is ATeam once again screwing us with their pretend-random b.s."

In any event, I was not presenting this as definitive of proof of anything... I think my exact words were that it gave me suspicions.
Sure, they screw things up often enough (sometimes badly - lotto events for example) - but they also give players way better rewards than they deserve often too. They are under no obligation to give players events they can easily profit off of enough to end up with 100-200 EP more than they started with. If A-Team wanted to keep their players constantly poor, they easily could with only minor event changes.

Similarly, 3 of 5 people I've talked to have gotten the Random Skill Spirit within the first few candy exchanges (2 to 6 tries). Like you said, not proof, but just like I wouldn't be surprised if A-Team makes some things harder than they should be, I wouldn't be surprised if they hand out more prizes than they should be too.

Especially since, if they wanted, they could have just made it cost more candy to exchange prizes (heck, maybe they did), and that would have had the same result of making things harder, and been easier to implement to boot. The only reason I can see them changing dice odds is if they wanted to make it harder on higher level players, or something like that. THAT would not surprise me.

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Post by MoRandi Fri Oct 18, 2013 3:08 pm

To make you guys stop argue, i'm at floor 96 (don't want to push in this event) and from 22 rolls in total i got 20 of 1-1, 1 of 1-3 and 1 of 2-1 so i'm pissed off, whenever i stopped the dice, if it was close to 6 it moves just a bit to stop at 1, if it was at 2 it moves more until stop...at 1 and i belive you guys noticed that too that the dice not stops with the same speed everytime
Fuck A-team, sry to all but that's shit

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Post by Ologolos Fri Oct 18, 2013 3:11 pm

On the plus side, I like the pumpkin animation. Simple, but I like it.

Hey, does anyone remember what (if anything) they did last year for Halloween? Just wondering if this candy / dice game is recycled or not. I can't remember that far back, but something about the whole "candy" theme seems familiar.
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Post by TheFury Fri Oct 18, 2013 6:39 pm

MoRandi wrote:To make you guys stop argue, i'm at floor 96 (don't want to push in this event) and from 22 rolls in total i got 20 of 1-1, 1 of 1-3 and 1 of 2-1 so i'm pissed off, whenever i stopped the dice, if it was close to 6 it moves just a bit to stop at 1, if it was at 2 it moves more until stop...at 1 and i belive you guys noticed that too that the dice not stops with the same speed everytime
Fuck A-team, sry to all but that's shit
How is that supposed to prove anything, other than you are probably lying/exaggerating? Nobody else is reporting numbers anywhere close to as bad as that, even if they say they are unlucky. I have noticed the 6 turning into a 1 about as often I've noticed the 5 turning into a 6, so I don't see what the problem is.

I just checked with another clan member who got 144 candies from 20 rolls. Perfectly normal.

Unless you happen to be max level (in which case you may be on to something) - then we might have pretty strong evidence that A-Team skews rewards against the highest level players. But I have confirmed the chances are worked just fine for everyone I've checked in my clan, from level 38 to 147 now.

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